Oscar 2021

I haven't seen "The Father" but the précis suggests it's a film with quiet intensity, starring two Brits that Hollywood (and a lot of the rest of America) loves -- Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman. But it also feels, too me, rather modest for a Best Picture win, and the story of the onset of dementia feels so familiar by now.

I also haven't seen "Minari" but feel that "Parasite" opened up a lot of Oscar-contender doors for Korean films. The buzz around "Minari" and Steven Yeun ("Walking Dead") is pretty amazing and no doubt deserved. I'll see both "The Father" and "Minari" before the gold is given out but neither will win Best Picture, I don't feel. Too familiar and too soon.

"Judas and the Black Messiah" was charged with social and political relevance and powerhouse performances from Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield. Slotting them both as Supporting Actor nominees reminded me of the machinations with Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer for "The Help" 10 years ago. Davis was nominated as Best Actress and Spencer as Supporting Actress for the film, which was smart because they would have cancelled each other out in the Supporting Actress slot, just like Kaluuya and Stanfield will do this year, even though Davis's role was indeed supporting. In the case of Kaluuya and Stanfield, it's the opposite because they're both leads. It's even in the film's title.

"Mank" is a tremendous picture made for people who love tremendous pictures about making pictures -- which is the Academy but not most of America, I don't think. The movie's got great writing and a bravura performance from Gary Oldman, who's been acting steadily for 40 years, and all that movie magic stuff that David Fincher likes to put in his pictures, and it's in arty black and white. What's not to love? Fincher has been nominated for Best Director twice before and has never won. I don't think this will break his streak.

"Nomadland" is so elegant and wistful and loving that I think anyone with patience and a heart will find joy in every frame. Frances McDormand is such a genius at understatement that when she does explode in a picture (what passes for an explosion for a woman of her temperament), it is stunning. She probably showed more emotional volatility in Three Billboards than in all of her previous motion pictures combined. Director Chloé Zhao has a romantic heart and passion for America and Americans that is so welcome these days. Her pictures are expansive and respectful. I hope she and her film win.

"Promising Young Woman" strikes some folks as a mean-spirited revenge flick, which it sort of is, but I think it's also quite like Taxi Driver and Joker, without their poetics. Carey Mulligan is marvelous as a mirror reflecting meanness and manipulation back at society's entitled takers. That she is mad is quite obvious. But she comes to it honestly, and we root for her until the bitter end. Like "Judas," "Promising" might cut too deep to win a prize.

"Sound of Metal" is an audacious film that is being honored for its audacity, I think. Not unlike "Mank," it's a film that moviemakers are studying for its design components while the unschooled among us are clawing at our seats over a story that is so cringe-inducing in its portrayal of pain and self-delusion that we forget that we're watching a heavy metal drummer (Riz Ahmed) go deaf in the realest of terms. The last three minutes of this sober and exhausting film are a cathartic release.

"The Trial of the Chicago 7″ is Aaron Sorkin doing what he does best -- dazzle audiences with his wit and sagacity. Sorkin isn't as pompous as Oliver Stone was in his motion picture heyday but he's just as political and that delights some folks and pisses off some folks -- like Stone did. That Sorkin's words are solid gold and that he has a mind built for juggling complex narratives make his films engrossing -- and maybe important -- but not necessarily Oscar worthy.