Oscar Picks

Oscar prognostication is a harmless (and useless) activity that folks who love movies toss at anyone who will listen. I don't know the movie business well enough to really handicap any of the pictures that made the cut this year, but I know that "best" is such a loaded term that it is almost meaningless as a label for quality or importance.

"Big" does not necessarily equal "best," neither do "edgy," "uncompromising," "artful," "sincere" and "truthful." I would attach at least one of those words to each of the nominated pictures. Which is the best? HTFSIK? But here are my thoughts, FWIW.

"The Irishman" was huge, Scorsese's homage to Scorsese, and he's already been celebrated for directing a mob picture.

"Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood" was Tarantino playing in the same auteur's revisionist sandbox he played in with "Inglourious Basterds."

Haynes' "Joker" pulled no punches and Joaquin Phoenix was his usual uncannily committed self. He's protean and fascinating in a picture that puts a disturbing, painted face on gun violence. Maybe too sympathetic?

Gerwig's "Little Women" was a thoroughgoing, beautifully composed empowerment statement using familiar material. Though lovely, no surprises.

Mangold's "Ford v Ferrari" featured some thrilling racing sequences but lacked a firm emotional center. Waititi's "Jojo Rabbit" had tons of heart but satirizing Nazism has been done before and it didn't win then either.

Baumbach's "Marriage Story" is so raw and abrasive in its honesty that audiences likely felt battered by the scheming and vitriol.

This leaves Mendes' phenomenal cinematographic achievement "1917" and Bong Joon-ho's savage opera buffa of class warfare "Parasite."

If Academy voters pick "Parasite" as Best Foreign Picture, the big winner will likely be “1917."