Oscar Notes

Thoughts about some Oscar noms:

BEST PICTURE

"Black Panther" -- Big personal and professional accomplishment for the director, enormous box office, positive message. Comics don't win.
"BlacKkKlansman" -- Spike is back and is in the same groove. Uneven tonally and the lead is not strong despite being Denzel's kid. Won't win.
"Bohemian Rhapsody" -- One truly unbelievable performance does not a winner make.
"The Favourite" -- Rich and ribald. Multiple strong performances and broken rules. Could win.
"Green Book" -- It made a lot of people feel good and a bunch of people feel bad. Mahershala Ali will win supporting actor. And that might be it.
"Roma" -- Impeccable film. Understated and lovely. Hypnotic, heartbreaking and troubling. Should win.
"A Star Is Born" -- Lots of heart, good tunes, but a familiarity that will not be rewarded over the freshness of The Favorite and Roma.
"Vice" -- Fine acting, disjointed script, self-satisfied and not as resonant as most of the rest of the list.

LEAD ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma" -- Will break your heart.
Glenn Close, "The Wife" -- Will have you cheering in the last reel.
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite" -- Will hypnotize you.
Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born" -- Will have you singing.
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" -- Will have you reaching for the scotch -- in a good way.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, "Vice" -- Not her strongest performance but that's not to say it's weak.
Marina De Tavira, "Roma" -- She plays overwhelmed like few performers I've seen.
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk" -- She's loved by everyone, and her Puerto Rico breakdown is the dramatic heart of this picture. Will win.
Emma Stone, "The Favourite" -- Her amazing performance is canceled by Weisz.
Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite" -- Her amazing performance is canceled by Stone.

LEAD ACTOR

Christian Bale, "Vice" -- Bale brings Bale to every picture. It's a prosthetics tour de force. Could win.
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born" -- Bradley does Barbra. Won't win.
Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate" -- Little seen, disorienting film with a wonderful performance.
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody" -- A little gimmicky but the kid worked his arse off. Might win.
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book" -- Audiences loved the chemistry between Tony the Lip and Dr. Shirley but may have loved Shirley more. Dunno.
 
SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, "Green Book" -- He won for Moonlight two years ago. Too soon for a repeat? Maybe not. Too thematically similar? Maybe so.
Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman" -- A good performance in an uneven picture.
Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born" -- There are no small parts but this one might be.
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" -- Actually, a bit more than a supporting role and remarkable. Should win.
Sam Rockwell, "Vice" -- He won for Three Billboards ... last year. It was a stronger performance than George W.

DIRECTOR

Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman" -- Spike does Spike.
Pawel Pawlikowski, "Cold War" -- Who has seen it?
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite" -- Brilliant and rococo and in English.
Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma" -- Lovely and humane and in Spanish.
Adam McKay, "Vice" -- Too much clever rehashery from The Big Short.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

"The Favourite" -- The language was glorious.
"First Reformed" -- Truly disturbing
"Green Book" -- Whose story is it?
"Roma" -- Personal and elegant
"Vice" -- Smart but a bit clownish

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" -- Masterful weaving together of disparate tales of western woe.
"BlackkKlansman" -- Gaps and gaffes.
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?" -- Sassy and sorrowful.
"If Beale Street Could Talk" -- Truncates much of Baldwin's brilliant prose but will probably win.
"A Star Is Born" -- Not enough story.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

"Cold War" -- Who has seen it?
"The Favourite" -- Some nice, disorienting fish bowling effects.
"Never Look Away" -- Who has seen it?
"Roma" -- The beach rescue scene is phenomenal. Should win.
"A Star Is Born" -- Moody and dour in spots, lustrous and intimate in others.